Donald Trump’s wife, Melania, has better odds than the president of winning the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, according to a Kalshi prediction market. The shift comes days after Trump publicly complained about losing this year’s award.
Melania Trump ranks ahead of the president in the Kalshi market
Kalshi opened its 2027 Nobel Peace Prize market on Tuesday, and the results place the first lady in second position with a 4 percent chance. Only Doctors Without Borders ranks higher, at 4.6 percent. The president trails at 1.1 percent, behind a field that includes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Pope Leo XIV, the International Criminal Court, and the Committee to Protect Journalists.
The ranking lands shortly after Trump told a rally crowd that he had promised Melania he would get the 2026 prize. “I said to our great first lady, ‘First lady, I get the Nobel Prize in two weeks,’ and it’ll be an honor, you know. I feel much better about saving all those lives,” he said, pointing to his claim that he “settled eight wars.” That award instead went to Navanethem “Navi” Pillay, a former U.N. human rights chief and judge. Trump responded with disbelief: “And it was announced, and it was gotten by a woman that nobody ever heard of. I said, What about me? Do they do two of them?” He then directed a profanity-laced attack at Norway.
Pillay herself mocked the president’s hunger for the Nobel Peace Prize. “If you clap a little bit more, I may share this prize with Trump,” she said in a video posted by Amnesty International chief Agnès Callamard.
Melania Trump’s position in the market may reflect attention surrounding her reported role in securing a localized ceasefire in Oleshky, a Russian-occupied city in Ukraine. The White House credited her with helping negotiate the agreement, which is intended to allow humanitarian aid deliveries and civilian evacuations. However, reporting also described involvement by Pope Leo and Ukrainian officials, making it important not to overstate her role or suggest the market’s odds have a proven cause.
