The price at the pump is moving in the wrong direction for the White House as the 2026 midterms approach. CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten said gasoline costs have posted an increase unmatched by any midterm election year this century, with prices still climbing after Labor Day.
CNN analyst Harry Enten says the oil price increase is a midterm-year record this century
The jump began after Trump’s war with Iran started in February and the Strait of Hormuz closed, disrupting a major oil-shipping route. Brent crude reached about $109 a barrel Monday, while AAA listed gasoline at $4.32 per gallon and diesel at a record $6.23.
The bigger shock sits in the year-to-date figures. AAA data shows gasoline prices have jumped 52% since January. The increase nearly doubles the previous midterm-year high of 27% and stands far above the 18% average recorded during midterm years this century (via The Daily Beast).
Harry Enten noted another major observation during his CNN appearance. Gas prices normally ease between Aug. 14 and Sept. 14 in midterm years. Instead, prices climbed 6% during that period in 2026. “This is record-breaking,” Enten said. “In fact, the relief is not there at all. In fact, there is more pain at the pump now,” Enten added.
According to Enten, the chance of gasoline remaining above $4 a gallon on Election Day had risen to 59%, up from 30% at the beginning of September. He warned that if those conditions persist, they could put the party’s congressional majority at risk.
That timing matters because voters are also questioning the cost of the Iran conflict. A CBS News/YouGov poll found 71% said they would not accept higher pump prices because of the war. Among independents, that figure reached 81%. Enten called the combination “killer stuff for congressional majorities.”
The political pressure was reflected in the latest polling, which put Democratic congressional candidates ahead 54% to 46% among likely voters. At the same time, tension was reportedly building within the White House over the lack of control officials have over the global oil market. Former Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore told Politico that the administration had limited options as energy prices continued to rise.
