Fantasy Football: Boom or Bust – Wes Welker

Denver Broncos training camp at Dove Valley

In one of the biggest moves in NFL free agency, Wes Welker left Foxborough, Mass. for the Mile High city, ditching one Hall of Fame quarterback for another. However, Welker’s quarterback isn’t the issue here. He joins a talented group of Broncos receivers and with so much talent at receiver in Denver, where does Welker fit in?

 

The Verdict: Bust

Bust seems like a strong word and it doesn’t necessarily mean that Welker isn’t worth drafting. It’s just that his value isn’t as high as in years past. The problem for Welker is that he isn’t the main receiving threat anymore and as such his numbers will probably drop.

Fact is, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are the main outside receiving threats in Denver. In 2012, Thomas’ 204 points and Decker’s 184 points were both more than Welker’s 173. Even in PPR leagues, where Welker’s value is higher due to his bulk of receptions, Thomas still outscored Welker 298 points to 291 — and that was with Welker being the primary receiving option in New England in 2012.

Also, Welker’s production has varied wildly.  In 2007, Welker put up 168 points before dropping to 137 in 2008. In 2009, Welker scored 162 points before his production dropped again in 2010 to 126 points. Finally in 2011, Welker scored a whopping 214 points but then fell again to 173 in 2012.

Combine his inconsistency with the fact he is no longer a No. 1 receiver and Welker’s value drops, as much as I hate to write it. He’ll still be good for a solid 135 or so fantasy points in 2013 but he just isn’t the boom he was in New England.

Eric Smith is an MMA and fantasy football contributor with Craveonline.com. Follow him on twitter or @EricSmith_SP or email him at [email protected]

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