Donald Trump has shared older CNN clips featuring data analyst Harry Enten discussing his political support. However, Enten’s latest analysis paints a much tougher picture for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.
Recent CNN polling showed Democrats leading Republicans by 10 points on the generic congressional ballot. Enten’s analysis also suggests Democrats have a strong chance of making major gains in the House.
Harry Enten projects a decisive Democratic House advantage
On The Enten Scale, CNN’s chief data analyst said current polling had moved the midterms into what he called “blowout territory.”
“The midterms are just days away, and I’m poring over hundreds, no thousands, of polls and data points,” Enten said. “And you know what the numbers are telling me? They are telling me that we are heading towards blowout territory. My goodness gracious.”
Enten put the overall chance of a House blowout, defined as one party winning at least 230 seats, at 71%. His analysis gave Democrats a 69% chance of reaching that mark, compared with 2% for Republicans. He also identified 238 seats as the most likely Democratic outcome, The Daily Beast reported.
Trump’s approval rating has also fallen. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted October 16–19 found that 31% of Americans approved of his job performance.
Enten also noted that polling has historically underestimated Republican support. Still, he argued that even applying the largest polling error seen in the 21st century would leave Democrats ahead in the national House vote.
His analysis also pointed to a competitive Senate picture. Enten put the chance of Democrats winning at least 52 Senate seats at 57%. Republicans, meanwhile, had a 24% chance of securing at least 51 seats. He said there was roughly a one-in-five chance of the Senate ending in a much tighter result.
Enten has also highlighted rising gas prices as another issue affecting voters in several states.
Despite the latest analysis, Trump shared older clips of Enten on Truth Social Sunday night. The posts highlighted previous commentary about Trump’s political support rather than Enten’s latest midterm analysis.
“Don’t be angry with me, because the numbers do the talking and I just listen,” Enten said.
His projections remain forecasts rather than election results, with voters set to decide control of Congress on November 3.
