State-level approval map 18 months into President Donald Trump‘s second term reveals that his political footing has slipped significantly since his return to the White House. A new Civiqs analysis tracking 117,851 registered voters shows once-reliable territory now looking far less certain, raising questions for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 37 percent nationally ahead of the 2026 midterms
Civiqs compared President Donald Trump’s standing on July 17, 2026, with his numbers on Inauguration Day 2025. The national picture shows 37 percent approval against 58 percent disapproval, producing a net score of -21.
The state approval map tells a more urgent political story. Trump is now underwater in every major battleground state, a major reversal from the start of his term when several swing states showed him in positive territory. His strongest support remains concentrated in the Republican heartland, led by Wyoming (+24 net approval), North Dakota (+18), and West Virginia (+16). Idaho, Alabama, and Oklahoma sit at +14, with South Dakota at +12.
Even within that core, the margins are shrinking. Kentucky shows the trend most dramatically. The state began Trump’s second term at +23 net approval. Today, that number has collapsed to zero. Other traditionally red states show positive ratings that are noticeably thinner than they were 18 months ago.
Moreover, the demographic picture compounds the geographical warning. Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates remain among the president’s weakest groups, limiting his coalition’s reach beyond the base that delivered his 2024 victory.
The White House has continued to reference that victory as the truest measure of public sentiment, pointing to the nearly 80 million Americans who backed Trump as a mandate for his agenda. Yet, the current data suggests that mandate has narrowed considerably. The overall map retains its familiar partisan shape. However, the president now operates with far less cushion than he enjoyed upon returning to office — a reality expected to shape Republican strategy as the midterms approach.
